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Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios
Spijkers, J. et al., One Earth Fisheries & Aquaculture
By using an exploratory scenario approach, we escape deterministic forecasts of future conflict and instead provide creative and complex narratives set in four regions of the world: the North-East Atlantic, the East China Sea, the coast of West Africa, and the Arctic. We highlight key lessons learned from the four scenarios and the narrative approach taken to build them for both scientists and policymakers. The scenarios are designed to trigger questions around the consequences of our current choices and how to avoid undesirable trajectories. They can be used to support decision making in the present by building capacity for better anticipation of an unpredictable future.
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